Exit polls project no clear winner, as anti-Netanyahu bloc leads but Likud remains biggest party
Exit polls from Israel’s major TV stations have projected that a majority of Israelis have voted against Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, but his Likud party has emerged as the largest party.
The Channel 12 exit poll shows that the bloc of Jewish-led parties opposing Netanyahu has the biggest bloc, and is projected to win a total of 52 seats, compared to 50 seats for the parties supporting Netanyahu.
It also projects that Netanyahu’s Likud party will win 24 seats in the Knesset, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 22 seats.
Neither bloc is close to a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset without the support of the Palestinian-led parties, which also oppose Netanyahu and are projected in that poll to win a total of 18 seats, a record number for them.
Voters have ‘dismissed’ Netanyahu’s government, says Golan
The leader of the Democrats party, Yair Golan, has also given his reaction to the exit polls, declaring that Israeli voters have “dismissed” Netanyahu’s government.
He wrote on X:
Here are some reactions to the exit polls, which have projected that the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is set to win more total seats than Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition.
Eisenkot says exit polls indicate 'complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu'
Here is Gadi Eisenkot’s reaction to the exit polls. He wrote on X:
Israel’s Channel 13’s exit poll also projects no clear winner, with the opposition bloc projected to win 53 seats, the Netanyahu bloc 50 seats and the Palestinian parties 17 seats.
Exit polls project no clear winner, as anti-Netanyahu bloc leads but Likud remains biggest party
Exit polls from Israel’s major TV stations have projected that a majority of Israelis have voted against Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, but his Likud party has emerged as the largest party.
The Channel 12 exit poll shows that the bloc of Jewish-led parties opposing Netanyahu has the biggest bloc, and is projected to win a total of 52 seats, compared to 50 seats for the parties supporting Netanyahu.
It also projects that Netanyahu’s Likud party will win 24 seats in the Knesset, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 22 seats.
Neither bloc is close to a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset without the support of the Palestinian-led parties, which also oppose Netanyahu and are projected in that poll to win a total of 18 seats, a record number for them.
Polls close in Israel after historic turnout in election that will determine Benjamin Netanyahu's future
It’s now past 10pm in Israel, which means polling stations across the country have closed after Israelis turned out in record numbers on a high-stakes election day that will determine the future of Benjamin Netanyahu.
A reminder that Israelis waiting in line at polling stations will still be allowed to cast their vote.
Israeli broadcasters are now set to air a set of exit polls, which will provide first estimates of the results. We’ll bring you all the latest on that as those come in.
What happens after polls close?
Polling stations across Israel are set to close in less than 35 minutes, when news tv stations will release their first exit polls giving preliminary estimates of how many seats each party has won.
The first lot of official results then won’t be released until after around 1am local time on Wednesday. And while the exit polls usually provide a reliable indication of how people have voted, they can also vary.
The current coalition is expected to lose its majority, but we won’t expect clear results quickly as the coalition nature of Israeli government means that even small changes in vote share will change coalition calculations. We therefore may not get fuller results until the next day or the day after.
The final tally is expected by 30 October and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on 4 November.
After the final tally is in, Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.
That nominee has up to 42 days to form a government.
No single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties who can get to 61 seats – and negotiations on forming a government often take weeks. Every Knesset seat counts and small parties can have a big impact by becoming kingmakers.
If the nominee fails, others can get a chance to try. If no government emerges, another election is called, meaning Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet would remain in place as a “caretaker” government.
Voter turnout as of 8pm surpasses total of 2022 election day
It’s now just gone 9pm in Israel, and nationwide voter turnout as of 8pm was 74.3%, per the Central Elections Committee.
That is not only up from 66.3% at the same time in the 2022 election; that figure surpasses the 70.6% total recorded turnout on election day in 2022.
The governor of New York, home to the world’s largest urban Jewish community outside of Israel, has said that her job would get “a lot easier” if Benjamin Netanyahu loses this election.
In an interview with Politico, Kathy Hochul said:
Voter turnout by 6pm is highest on record
Voter turnout as of 6pm local time reached 66.7%, the highest ever by that hour since voting hours were first recorded, the Central Elections Committee said.
That is a 9% increase from the 2022 election at that time and Israel’s highest recorded turnout by 6pm.
Election committee rejects Netanyahu bloc request to extend voting hours
The Central Elections Committee decided not to extend voting hours beyond 10pm, rejecting a request submitted by Netanyahu bloc parties, Haaretz is reporting.
In a statement, the committee said it met this evening and decided “the current circumstances do not justify an extension”.
It added that the high turnout “reflects strong public engagement in the democratic process” and “no need to extend voting hours was identified”.
A reminder that, under Israeli law, the current rules do allow for a voter to cast their vote past the polling time, just as long they arrive at a station by 10pm.
As we’ve been reporting, a record number of Israelis cast their ballots in the first half of polling day, voting at polling stations across the country and in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
By 2pm local time (it is now after 8pm), 44.9% of voters had cast their ballot – the highest turnout since record-keeping began in the 1970s.
My video colleagues have this report:
Is this the end for Benjamin Netanyahu? – podcast
It’s been described as an existential moment; a battle for the soul of a nation. With voting under way in Israel today, public opinion is divided on what the future of the country looks like. To his supporters, Benjamin Netanyahu has protected the country in a way no other leader could, taking on Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis.
To his critics, Netanyahu is to blame for a catastrophic failure of security, leaving Israel more isolated, traumatised and no safer. Today, his most serious challenge comes from a candidate with little experience in office. Gadi Eisenkot is seen as humble, approachable … and honest. The former chief of staff for the Israeli military is promising a future without corruption. Thirteen months ago, his party didn’t even exist.
But after three years of war and upheaval, it’s clear that the consequences of today’s elections go way beyond Israel’s borders.
In the latest edition of our Today in Focus podcast, Emma Graham-Harrison tells Nosheen Iqbal about the stakes of the election and what it could all mean for the future of Israel – and for the Palestinians living under occupation.
