Good morning. Later today, Donald Trump will be in the state of Nebraska to rev up supporters as he kicks off a campaign blitz of rallies ahead of the midterm elections on 3 November.
If his early speeches are anything to go by, cornhuskers can anticipate poll denial, accusations of veganism and an expletive ratio that my nine-year-old would love. And Nebraskans may love it, too: aside from one “blue dot” district in Omaha, Republicans argue their support is steady in the state that has easily backed Trump three times.
This campaign is set against the president’s plummeting approval ratings, the unravelling of his Maga movement and an affordability crisis escalated by his unpopular war on Iran. But Trump supporters are also among the most motivated to vote, and Republicans have far deeper coffers to mobilise their base.
I asked First Edition readers what you really want to know about the US midterms. Today, in a happy exercise in newsletter cross-pollination, I put your questions to our Washington editor Ankita Rao, who runs our US elections newsletter The Stakes. First, the headlines.
Weekend roundup
UK politics | The Greens in England and Wales have formally adopted a policy that equates Zionism with racism and calls for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state.
Schools | Lawyers and campaigners have condemned the “horrifying” scale of child-on-child sexual abuse in schools after a Guardian investigation revealed thousands of sexual offences against under-13s are reported to police each year.
Brazil | Brazil’s presidential race will go to a second round after the far-right candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, beat the incumbent leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but failed to secure the outright majority he needed to avoid a runoff.
Environment | A study of Europe’s summer paints a grim picture for the future, with doctors and climate scientists calling on governments to stop burning fossil fuels, shade buildings, green cities, and install air conditioning in hospitals, schools and care homes.
US military | The US Air Force has pulled its bombers from RAF Fairford following an investigation into an alleged planned terror attack at the base.
In depth: ‘We are prepared for anything’
You’d be forgiven, readers, if the state of US politics is perplexing you. On the one hand, there are voters who have little faith in the president’s war in the Middle East and are increasingly angry about his inability to make daily life more affordable at home.
On the other, Trump has promised a “big surprise” come 3 November – and polls have predicted the wrong results for previous elections.
As Ankita Rao set out in The Stakes in September, her team of reporters across the US are hearing the same things in almost every community they’ve spent time in:
Americans feel their lives are dictated by an elite class that goes beyond political parties – best summed up by Democratic senator Jon Ossoff’s use of the term “Epstein class”.
People are exhausted by an ongoing crisis in affordability of childcare, healthcare, food and gas.
Many have lost trust in institutions, from hospitals to schools.
With this deep knowledge of the mood of the country, she is the woman to answer your questions. Over to you.
Who still believes in Donald Trump? Johanne, Quebec, Canada
Ankita’s short answer is that it might be the other way around: a lot of Americans don’t feel they’ve been presented with a better option yet. This was evident during primary season, when both Democrats and Republicans went for candidates “who they felt would actually stick it to the man”, says Ankita, rather than regurgitating established party platforms.
After all, that was what so many hoped to get with Trump – but those voters who had flocked to him as the anti-establishment leader, or the man who represented something beyond the two-party system, now see him aligning himself with big tech and other corporate interests, particularly this last term in office.
There’s a serious disconnect between Trump and his supporters, Ankita tells me. His previously impressive political instincts have faltered “partly because he can’t see beyond his own fixations” – be that his ballroom, the war in Iran, or the unfettered growth of AI.
As one Ohio voter told us at the weekend: “I’m sorry, but I don’t give a shit whose name is on the Kennedy Center.”
Has Trump got a decisive ‘dirty trick’ up his sleeve? Bron Purkiss, England
A big concern for First Edition readers is election interference: how Trump has already restricted voting and what dirty tricks he might still try. Will he try to ignore the election results – and how would the Guardian report that?
Ankita joined Guardian US seven years ago as voting rights editor, launching our multiyear democracy project. “We had four reporters on that, but now they’re part of the larger politics team, and election integrity has become essential to our coverage,” she says.
In the months leading up to the midterms, Trump signed executive orders seeking to assert more control over voting methods, and in a Time magazine interview last week, he refused to rule out declaring a national emergency around elections to implement them. “So we are prepared for anything,” says Ankita.
Legal challenges in individual races are “almost inevitable”, she says. “We know the states where the election systems are fully controlled by Republicans, and we’re ready to move everybody there if we see anything strange happening”. Fear of election rigging is high in the communities Guardian reporters are visiting. “We hear this a lot from Democrats who are worried about making sure their vote counts, and more nervous about using mail-in ballots.” This September edition of The Stakes covers Trump’s attempts to restrict postal voting – which is how almost one-third of Americans vote.
Ankita suggests this could result in higher turnout. Early data in the deeply red state of Florida, for example, showed voter registration among Democrats already very high.
“There’s a sense that ‘we need to go out in droves and make sure that all of these wins are very decisive, so that nobody can question them’.”
Would Republican losses limit Trump’s excesses? Peter Alexander, England
Ankita tells me she doesn’t make predictions any more – a lot can change in a few short weeks – but if an election was called tomorrow “it looks as if the Democrats will absolutely win the House and most likely win the Senate”.
The mechanics of voting mean that it will take a decisive majority in both chambers to act as a genuine bulwark against Trump, says Ankita, before adding the weighty caveat that Trump sidestepped congressional authorisation altogether ahead of the Iran war.
Nonetheless, she anticipates a slew of investigations after the midterms, launched in the House and then requiring the Senate to move them forward. For example, there are already calls for an investigation into revelations that a Russian oligarch bankrolled part of Donald Trump Jr’s recent wedding in the Bahamas.
How will democratic socialists influence policy decisions after the midterms? Feride Hekimgil, Turkey
This is a “huge question”, Ankita agrees, as progressive candidates capture the enthusiasm of voters desperate for radical change. While the number of Democratic Socialists actually elected is likely to only be a handful, it could become a “very vocal group”.
What’s not clear yet is how they will act once in the Congress. Ankita points to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the country’s most prominent democratic socialists: “She was very clear about her affiliation when she ran, but she hasn’t been that type of lawmaker where she exists to stop the party from doing certain things. She has been much more strategic and collaborative with establishment Democrats.”
It remains to be seen whether an augmented group after 3 November takes a similar route or choses a more hardline stance, in particular on Israel’s decimation of Gaza, which has already created gaping divisions in the Democratic party.
One more thing
In an early edition of The Stakes, Ankita described her morning bike ride to the Guardian’s Washington office, navigating National Guard trucks and reflecting on the militarisation of her city since the last election. I wanted to ask her, as a citizen as well as a journalist, how that influences the way she approaches this election.
It can’t be overstated, she tells me, how it changes your day-to-day life: “It adds a layer of subtle fear. I’m not actively scared about walking around DC, but it feels as if things could escalate really quickly.”
Will it hold people back from voting, or at least displaying their preferences? Quite the opposite, she tells me. “Places where we see this military presence – in Minneapolis, or LA, or DC – are such vocal, largely Democratic cities that people are undeterred.”
“There are double the number of lawn signs,” she says. “It’s defiant.”
For more from Ankita and the Guardian US politics in the run-up to the midterms, sign up to The Stakes 2026 here
The week to come
Tuesday | ABC News is suing the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) over its licence review, and on Thursday its hearing will take place. The broadcaster claims the review, ordered by Donald Trump in April over comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s comments about the US president, is a “retaliatory campaign” in violation of its first amendment rights.
Wednesday | Kemi Badenoch is to speak at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham. This day also marks the third anniversary of the 7 October attacks by Hamas. In London, the Met are asking organisers of a pro-Palestinian student march to move the event.
Thursday | Holborn and St Pancras will hold its byelection. The seat belongs to former prime minister and Labour party leader Keir Starmer, who held it from 2015 until his resignation in September.
What else we’ve been enjoying
Helena Horton’s sweeping interview with the Royal Horticultural Society boss Clare Matterson is an absorbing conversation about everything from her high hopes for Andy Burnham, the roles of gardens in public health and the RHS’s £2.3m roadworks compensation. “Who is gardening for in the 21st century?” Matterson asks. “Is it for a small elite band of people, or is it for everybody?” Craille Maguire Gillies, newsletters team
If you didn’t catch it yesterday, our interview with the actor John Boyega, recounting the impact of seeing his close friend Damilola Taylor die when he was a child, is deeply moving. Poppy Noor, newsletters team
Who doesn’t love images of funny animals? This photo gallery of laughing bears, a sexy mantis and a truly angry bird is worth a look and chuckle. Craille
Sport
Football | Manchester City came from behind on two occasions to beat Arsenal 4-2 in the Women’s Super League on Sunday, keeping the champions top of the table.
Racing | Formula One drivers have issued a damning condemnation of the sport’s engine regulations that caused the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia to open with scenes of cars stopping on track and unable to accelerate because of software problems. Max Verstappen got his first win of the season at the chaotic race.
Football | The Republic of Ireland’s manager Heimir Hallgrímsson has called on Uefa to keep his side away from Israel in future draws after a pair of fixtures he admitted “has been tough on us all”.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Horryfying scale of child-on-child sexual abuse in schools revealed”. The Times splashes with “Badenoch to pledge a bonfire of green laws” and the Mail has “Kemi’s common sense blueprint”. The Mirror, on Badenoch’s pledges to cut benefits, goes with “Bad to the future”. The Telegraph has “Andrew takes police to court over arrest” and The Financial Times says “Hopes for record year in dealmaking punctured by interest rate increases”. The i Paper runs with “Man City owners’ link to Burnham’s No 10 North site after ‘sweetheart deal’ with UAE firm”. And the Sun leads with a story on the romance between Mark Chapman and Kelly Cates, headlined “Love match of the day”.
Today in Focus
Colonialism for clicks? The influencers targeting uncontacted tribes
Features writer Elle Hunt and Indigenous activist María José Andrade Cerda on the growing phenomenon of influencers around the world trying to reach uncontacted tribes.
Cartoon of the day | Tom Gauld
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Five years ago, Barbara Scully sat in her car crying. Trying to find work after taking time to raise her children, she found herself facing closed doors. “I presume it was the fact that I was 50 and had a 10-year gap where my career used to live [while she was raising children],” she says. “I sat in the car on the driveway in tears, thinking: that’s it, I’m washed up, I’m done.”
Then something changed. “Once I pulled myself together, I thought: OK, if this were one of my kids, what would I tell them? … Look at what it is you enjoy doing and try to make that work for you.”
Scully relaunched her career for the sixth time, as a broadcaster and comedian, and feels happier than ever. “I am on a mission to try to tell women in particular not to fear getting older; to embrace it, to push back against all the bullshit about how you should be fighting ageing,” she says.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
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