Full story: Donald Trump has promised not to attack Iran before November’s US midterm elections, outlining a pause on the protracted war he has struggled to end after almost eight months.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, the US president said Washington was “having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran”, which he claimed was “in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily”.
The strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through before the war, was all but closed after the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.
On Thursday, however, Trump suggested that oil was moving through the strait in record volumes: “22 Million Barrels, last night alone”, he claimed, “with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran”. The figure could not be independently verified.
“We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” Trump wrote. “IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!”
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It’s worth remembering that this morning’s pullback in oil prices comes after Brent crude posted its biggest daily jump in two weeks, rising more than 4% to $104.28 per barrel.
That was driven by mounting fears of further escalation of the US war on Iran, which this past week was punctuated by Houthi attacks on two attacks in Saudi Arabia, and new attacks on ships in the strait of Hormuz.
US magazine The Atlantic also reported overnight that the White House had asked the Pentagon to develop strike options that could be used before the midterms.
As Deutsche Bank analysts note, “that that ran counter to assumptions that there wouldn’t be an escalation before the midterms.”
UK and US telecom stocks have tumbled after Elon Musk’s SpaceX took a major step towards launching a Starlink mobile service for American consumers.
The company announced it had bought a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that it said would help it launch a full mobile business in the US.
This would be done by providing what it claimed was the world’s “most advanced broadband network from space”:
The potential competition has spooked investors in some of the US’ biggest mobile carriers. Verizon Communications tumbled 7%, AT&T dropped 7.5% and T-Mobile US fell 6.7%.
Those jitters also weighed on UK telecom stocks, pushing BT (which owns EE) down 0.5% and Vodafone down 2.6%
SpaceX currently runs high speed internet connections in more than 160 countries, via its constellations of satellites.
Trump’s pledge to pause attacks on Iran, and China’s resumption of fuel exports, are offsetting concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies in the US Gulf coast as a result of Hurricane Isaias.
The hurricane, which intensified from a tropical storm into the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday night, has prompted state of emergency declarations in Florida, Alabama and Georgia.
US producers in the Gulf of Mexico have temporarily halted operations, representing around 1.3 million barrels per day of oil production and 1.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.
Reuters reported that personnel had already been evacuated from 121 production platforms, , citing the Marine Minerals Administration. That represents around 33% of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf, and workers had been removed from five of 11 non-dynamically positioned rigs, it said.
Introduction: Oil prices ease as Trump pledges to pause Iran attacks, and China restarts fuel exports
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
We’re seeing a dip in oil prices this morning, with Brent crude down about 1% at $103 per barrel, following another momentary pause in US attacks on Iran.
Prices eased overnight on news that US president Donald Trump had pledged not to attack Iran ahead of the US midterm elections, which take place on 3 November.
It comes as public support for his war in the Middle East is waning and ultimately weighing on Republican election campaigns.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said:
An Reuters/Ipsos survey from late September show thats only a third of Americans approve of strikes on Iran, while approval for Trump among Republicans had fallen from 82% to 73% in a week.
Polling averages now show Democrats leading Republicans by roughly nine points on the generic congressional ballot, according to forecaster Nate Silver, the widest margin of this election cycle.
Oil prices have also eased on news that China is set to resume fuel exports, after a pause in deliveries during the country’s Golden Week holiday. The resumption of exports are expected to boost tight global supplies of diesel, gas, and jet fuel.
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