More numbers, 52% of the vote counted. It’s so close.
Labour 29.5%, National 29.4%, Greens 13.8%, Act 10.8%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%.
New Zealand First are tracking well ahead of their 2023 result.
With 52% of the party vote counted, NZ First is on 9.6%, which would give them 11 seats in parliament. In 2023 they polled just over 6%.
As you know, Michelle Duff is in Upper Hutt tonight, with the Labour faithful at the local Cosmopolitan Club; that’s in Chris Hipkins’ electorate.
Michelle has this important update on the food and vibe:
The generally buoyant atmosphere is not reflected in the food, which is majority fried and beige. “There’s no fruit,” said one punter, before standing corrected; there was, in fact, a lemon wedge.
Guests are otherwise snacking on chicken tenders and sausage rolls, listening to a playlist of New Zealand reggae hits from the 90s, and biting their nails.
Labour party candidate Barbara Edmonds has arrived at the Labour party event, hot off a campaign that has seen her gain double the votes of her closest National party contender in Kenepuru, a Wellington electorate.
Surrounded by family, she said she was thrilled to have won her electorate and increased voter turnout, and “nervously excited” about the numbers for her party so far. She wanted to see Labour with a count in the 30s. “My hopes are high, but it’s still early days.”
Will Christopher Luxon call Qiulae Wong?
Senior government minister Mark Mitchell has just offered a pretty strong hint that National has softened its stance on working with the Opportunity party.
Christopher Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity. But Mitchell just told TV3 that “at the end of the day it’s an MMP environment and the voters decide”.
Mitchell, one of National’s most senior ministers, added it was “too early to say” if working with the new party was possible.
No one really believed Luxon wouldn’t call Qiulae Wong if he needed her to form a government.
With National at 29.41% of the party vote, that might be starting to play out.
A bit of a surprisingly close race in the Northland city of Whangārei, normally a safe blue seat, notes Jamie Tahana.
National’s Lloyd Budd is just 206 votes ahead of Labour’s Gary Payinda, with 34% of votes counted.
The seat has always been a National seat, except for a brief switch for three years in the Jacinda Ardern-led red wave of 2020.
Jamie Tahana has this on David Seymour from a little earlier, after the leader of the libertarian Act party addressed his faithful at Auckland’s Viaduct Harbour.
Flanked by his MPs, he told a cheering crowd that it’s unlikely we’ll know who will form the next government tonight.
“This election has a few machinations, it’s fair to say the final result may not be known tonight and it may not be known until the final count is released in two Fridays time.”
Seymour looks set to win his Epsom electorate, currently 900 votes ahead of National’s Paul Goldsmith – a senior government minister who probably won’t make parliament if he doesn’t win the electorate.
But in neighbouring Tāmaki, Act looks set to lose that electorate.
A number of pundits are noting how well Act have done so far tonight, currently on 10.6%.
In 2023, Act landed 8.6% of the vote.
So, what does that mean for seats in parliament?
National 42, Act 13, NZ First 11 = 66
Labour 36, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 58
Opportunity 7
Labour just ahead with 35% of vote counted
More numbers, folks! With 35% of the vote counted:
Labour just ahead with 29.9%, National 29.4%, Greens 14.1%, Act 10.5%, NZ First 9.4%, Opportunity 5.4%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%.
National MP Mark Mitchell, who has spent the past term as minister for a swathe of portfolios including police, corrections and emergency management, has arrived at the Auckland venue.
Speaking to a media scrum Mitchell said the early results for National were good, saying incumbent governments around the world were doing it tough.
When asked how he felt about the possibility of some of his senior colleagues, including Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith, not making it back to parliament, Mitchell said he hoped they would return.
“They have been outstanding ministers … It’s still too early to tell.”
Mitchell seemed more open to the prospect of working with Opportunity if it becomes kingmaker, saying the shape of the government is decided by New Zealand. This is a departure from Luxon’s stance – he has repeatedly ruled out working with them.
'Very likely' Opportunity will make history tonight: Qiulae Wong
More on that Qiulae Wong speech now:
Wong added: “You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good.”
Jamie Tahana says Wong thanked her candidates for a positive and determined campaign, “To many in this room, this result has been a long time coming,” she said, acknowledging volunteers for the work done since the party’s inception a decade ago.
Overseas voters could play an interesting role this election. Offshore enrolments skyrocketed 60% compared with 2023 – the highest number the electoral commission has seen.
Tens of thousands of New Zealanders left the country over the past three years, amid high costs and high unemployment. Analysts believe they may be poised to vent their grievances against the coalition government.
The results of votes won’t be known until 27 November.
Read more:
Qiulae Wong looks happy tonight.
Swarmed by reporters as she enters her party’s HQ at Auckland’s Eden Park, the leader of Opportunity, Qiulae Wong, said she was confident.
“We are stoked, it’s looking very promising for us,” she said. “Let’s just see how the rest of the votes fall.”
Currently at 5.7%, the centrist party could pass the threshold needed to enter parliament, an historic first.
Since New Zealand adopted MMP in 1996, no new party has been able to meet that threshold – all the minor parties have been born from MPs or groups splintering from other major parties.
She’s about to give a speech to supporters, so we’ll have that for you.
Right bloc just ahead with 29% of vote counted
More numbers. This is how the seats in parliament add up with 29% of the vote counted.
Based on this, Opportunity would be kingmaker. But, still a long way to go.
National 41, Act 13, NZ First 11 = 65 seats
Labour 36, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 58 seats
Opportunity 7
There are 130 seats in parliament with the overhang on these numbers. For more on the overhang issue, read here.
Something of a New Zealand election tradition is that the families of the contenders for prime minister take food to the journalists waiting outside their houses.
This year, Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ partner Toni Grace catered with homemade mince pies, accompanied by pikelets with jam and cream.
Christopher Luxon’s wife Amanda brought the throngs of media strawberries, a few party pies, and a few bottles of mineral water. “The whole food groups,” she said on TVNZ.
Cheers explode at the Labour party event as Labour draws neck and neck with National in party votes for the first time tonight. Friends Jamie Hoare and Eddie Clark are allowing themselves a ray of hope.
“There is a reason for it,” says Hoare, a local teacher, citing Brazil’s election and the “blue-nado,” in the US as examples. “We need a stable government, we need a government that cares about pay equity.”
Elsewhere, Labour candidates are locked in neck and neck races, with tensions high for those at the Labour party event watching Hutt South. With more than 20% of the vote counted, the mood is high as Labour’s Ginny Anderson edges ahead of the incumbent, National MP Chris Bishop, by just a handful of ballots.
Green MP Julie-Anne Genter is just holding off Labour challenger Craig Renney in Wellington North, while Labour’s Kieran McAnulty is winning against National’s Mike Butterick in Wairarapa.
Elsewhere in Wellington, Labour party MP Ayesha Verrall was hoping to win Wellington North off the incumbent Green MP Tamatha Paul, but early votes suggest this won’t be the case. Paul is leading comfortably, at almost twice Verrall’s count in an electorate where Green is also leading the party vote.
How close? 0.03%, Jamie Tahana writes.
With a quarter of votes counted, just 0.03% separates Labour and National in what is proving a knife-edge election.
Labour has just pushed ahead of National in party votes, 29.72 to 29.69 but looking at electorates, National would still have more seats in parliament.
At 5.38%, the newcomer Opportunity party would just squeak into parliament.
With plenty more to come – including large urban booths, and remote booths – there could still be some drastic changes.
